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Monday, April 20, 2020

Making the best decisions in a run of not good decision options

I understand people want to return to work.
I understand people need to make a living.
I understand that the economy is tanking.
I truly get that.

But I also understand that without better information and testing, we are making poor decisions.

One day, it might be found that quarantining in itself was a poor decision because it was a decision based on not knowing anything about COVID-19.

How it spreads.
Where it spreads.
Where it currently is.
Who has it.
Who doesn't have it.
Who is immune to it.
Who has minimal immunity versus maximum immunity.
Who is most likely to get it and need hospitalization.
Who has the ability to trace it?

If we knew any of these, we might see that quarantining isn't necessary.
Maybe a huge percentage of the population has already been exposed?

But because we know virtually nothing, quarantining is the BEST option at the moment.

Quarantining is the best of a lot of BAD options.
The worst option right now is lots of death and hospitals overrun.
I would say that tens of thousands of deaths over the course of 4-6 weeks mean we're in worst option territory.

But here is the thing that gets lost in all the arguing about "opening the economy."

Without better information, even if stores reopen, how many people, given the uncertainty, are going to go shopping, especially for big-ticket items, like furniture or appliances (unless it is an absolute necessity)?


If you have a beat-up car, you're probably going to continue to drive your beat-up car because you could lose your job in the next week or six months or one year, depending on how things shake out.

If there are future lockdowns, maybe the economy gets even worse.
If we're dealing with this until 2021 or 2022, maybe I better save money to pay for food instead of spending it on a new couch (even though I'd love a new couch).

How many people are going to swarm the malls and cinemas?

How many people, given the uncertainty, are willingly going to go back to "life as normal? even if the governors aren't explicitly telling them to keep their butts at home?

Even if the governor said today, "Go out there and get' em, tiger," my butt and my family's butts are staying home.

Chances are the economy will not go back to normal because people who aren't willing (and have the means to work from home and stay at home) to take chances with their kids' lives or their older parents' lives are NOT going to return to normal buying, shopping, etc.

So if these people who are protesting are truly making an argument about going back to work, realistically are these businesses going to do much?

Of course, something is better than nothing, I guess.

The people who can afford to not go back to normal will continue doing as they do, leaving the people who can't afford to stay quarantined to be the guinea pigs of what happens when we try to reopen the economy.

People cannot make good decisions without good information, so it is best for governors to make decisions slowly.
To take a step and watch carefully.

But people don't want that.
They want to do whatever it is they want to do. They want to yell "My RIGHTS" with little consideration that others are suffering worse and accepting it as what we all have to do to get through this.

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